Enabling informed investment decisions through financial analysis and risk assessments

Haven was attracting attention for strong top-line growth, but the investor group needed a more independent view before moving further. The headline story was attractive, yet growth alone was not enough to support an acquisition decision. The group needed to understand the real earnings profile of the business, the range of possible outcomes under different scenarios, and the risks that might not be obvious from the seller materials alone.

The key challenge was that valuation and diligence could not be separated. To assess whether the business was worth acquiring, the investors needed a cleaned financial picture, a more realistic forecast, and a structured review of the operational and commercial issues that could affect value.

1. Reconstructing the financial story

We began by rebuilding three full fiscal years of profit-and-loss and cash flow data. This included reconciling reported revenue to cash collections, normalising owner-specific adjustments, and separating recurring operating costs from one-off items. Using that cleaned base, we built forecast scenarios testing different growth paths, payer mixes, and reimbursement trends.

We also used sector benchmarks to provide context for margins and built sensitivity views showing how wage inflation and reimbursement pressure could affect performance. The result was not a single point estimate, but a valuation range that gave the investors a clearer view of both upside potential and downside exposure.

2. Focusing diligence on the risks that mattered most

Valuation alone was not enough, so we focused diligence on the areas most likely to affect returns after acquisition.

We reviewed payer contracts and identified clauses in several agreements that allowed unilateral rate resets. We then modelled the impact on revenue if those provisions were exercised. We also reviewed regulatory and compliance risk by sampling caregiver files to confirm licensure, background checks, and visit documentation. The gaps we found were not severe, but they were real, and we translated them into a practical remediation plan.

A further area of focus was staffing scalability. Using industry data alongside Haven’s payroll records, we assessed turnover, overtime, and recruitment lead times, then quantified the likely cost of sustaining staffing levels as patient volumes increased. This helped the investors understand the working-capital and operating pressure linked to labour as the business scaled.

3. Stress-testing the competitive environment

Beyond internal diligence, we also considered how the market around Haven could change. National franchises were expanding into adjacent states, telehealth platforms were beginning to move closer to non-skilled home care, and hospital systems were considering more vertically integrated home-care offerings.

Rather than treating these as abstract threats, we translated them into specific revenue and margin pressures within the model. This allowed the investor group to see how external competition could affect returns and how resilient the acquisition case remained under more difficult market conditions.